## Notes from 25 January 2026 [[2026-01-24|← Previous note]] ┃ [[2026-01-26|Next note →]] Reading [this study (Nov 2024)](https://www.vbw-bayern.de/Redaktion/Frei-zugaengliche-Medien/Abteilungen-GS/Wirtschaftspolitik/2024/Downloads/2411-Studie-Stellenmehrung-und-Stellenbremse-in-der-Bundesverwaltung_final.pdf) recommended by dear Hermann Amecke on headcount expansion in German federal ministries. The report documents 47% growth in permanent civil service positions between 2013-2024, rising from ~15,000 to over 22,000 positions. Personnel costs doubled in the same period, growing 114% faster than GDP. The study advocates for immediate hiring freezes and "one in, two out" principles to reverse this trend. **Headcount-only metrics miss the point:** The report's focus on civil servant headcount as the primary metric for government efficiency is flawed. Fiscal discipline is necessary, but using headcount as a proxy for bureaucratic bloat ignores the _"[[Blended Workforce|Hidden State]]"_ phenomenon: when personnel caps tighten, spending migrates to consulting contracts and outsourced services. This creates institutional hollowing - government loses administrative sovereignty and institutional memory while maintaining or increasing total budget pressure. The economist sees reduced headcount; everyone that already worked in government once can see eroded state capacity. What matters isn't how many civil servants you have, but how total agency budgets are allocated: capital investment vs. services vs. personnel, and whether this allocation actually serves the agency's mission or merely circumvents hiring caps. **A better framework**: Rather than blanket hiring freezes, effective reform requires agency-level analysis of total budget composition. Where is outsourcing genuine strategic partnership versus accounting gimmickry? Which agencies maintain institutional intelligence versus dependency on external consultants? The real question isn't "how many civil servants" but "what is the optimal mix of permanent capacity, temporary hiring, and strategic partnerships for each agency's core functions".